Rapidly forming submarine craters and massive ice outcrops along the Arctic shelf edge: by-products of subsea permafrost degradation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Substantial morphological changes are rapidly occurring along the Canadian Arctic shelf edge (Paull et al., 2022, PNAS). During a 2022 IBRV Araon cruise, autonomous underwater vehicle mapping surveys identified several new craters that formed between 2019 and 2022. Five multibeam bathymetric mapping surveys, each partially covering a 15 km2 study area between 120 and 200 mwd have now been conducted over a 12-year time period. These repeat surveys reveal 65 new depressions developed averaging 6.5 m deep and reaching up to 30 m deep. Remotely operated vehicle investigations also discovered outcrops of massive ice exposed on the flanks of the newest craters. This ice is not believed to be relic permafrost formed during Pleistocene sea-level low-stands because the host sediments were deposited in a submarine setting. The low porewater salinity and light isotopic compositions in the meltwater of ice samples from sediment cores indicate brackish waters reflecting a meteoric source are discharging and freezing in this area. The ascending brackish groundwater is likely derived from melting relict permafrost under the shelf. The ~ -1.4°C bottom water temperatures provide conditions appropriate for freezing brackish porewaters within the near seafloor sediments. Conditions appropriate for the melting of ice also exist nearby where ice is in contact with seawater or warmed by ascending groundwater. Small variations in either temperature or salinity, over time, can shift equilibrium conditions of ice formation and degradation, which leads to repetitive freezing and thawing of ascending brackish groundwater and the development of wide-spread ice layers in the near seafloor sediments. These conditions have produced a dramatic submarine thermokarst morphology riddled with multi-aged depressions captured in the repeat mapping surveys. These findings suggest that the distribution of submarine permafrost ice should be reassessed as it may include extensive areas where ice formed during the Holocene where groundwaters discharge at sub-zero temperatures, in addition to relict Pleistocene permafrost.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".