Transition to a weaker Sun: Changes in the solar atmosphere during the decay of the Modern Maximum
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Context.The Sun experienced a period of unprecedented activity during the 20th century, now called the Modern Maximum (MM). The decay of the MM after its maximum in cycle 19 has changed the Sun, the heliosphere, and the planetary environments in many ways. However, studies disagree on whether this decay has proceeded synchronously in different solar parameters or not. Aims.One of the related key issues is if the relation between two long parameters of solar activity, the sunspot number and the solar 10.7 cm radio flux, has remained the same during this decay. A recent study argues that there is an inhomogeneity in the 10.7 cm radio flux in 1980, which leads to a step-like jump (“1980 jump”) in this relation. If true, this result would reduce the versatility of possible long-term studies of the Sun during the MM. Here we aim to show that the relation between sunspot number and 10.7 cm radio flux does indeed vary in time, not due to an inhomogeneous radio flux but due to physical changes in the solar atmosphere. Methods.We used radio flux measurements made in Japan at four different wavelengths, and studied their long-term relation with the sunspot number and the 10.7 cm radio flux during the decay of MM. We also used two other solar parameters, the MgII index and the number of solar active regions, in order to study the nature of the observed long-term changes in more detail. Results.We find that the 1980 jump is only the first of a series of 1–2-year “humps” that mainly occur during solar maxima. All five radio fluxes depict an increasing trend with respect to the sunspot number from the 1970s to 2010s. These results exclude the interpretation of the 1980 jump as an inhomogeneity in the 10.7 cm flux, and reestablish the 10.7 cm flux as a homogeneous measure of solar activity. The fluxes of the longer radio waves are found to increase with respect to the shorter waves, which suggests a long-term change in the solar radio spectrum. We also find that the MgII index of solar UV irradiance and the number of active regions also increased with respect to the sunspot number, further verifying the difference in the long-term evolution in chromospheric and photospheric parameters. Conclusions.Our results provide evidence for important structural changes in solar magnetic fields and the solar atmosphere during the decay of the MM, which have not been reliably documented so far. We also emphasize that the changing relation between the different (e.g., photospheric and chromospheric) solar parameters should be taken into account when using the sunspot number or any single parameter in long-term studies of solar activity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".