Past, present, and future spatial distributions of deep-sea coral and sponge microbiomes revealed by predictive models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Knowledge of the spatial distribution patterns of biodiversity in the ocean is key to evaluate and ensure ocean integrity and resilience. Especially for the deep ocean, where in situ monitoring requires sophisticated instruments and considerable financial investments, modelling approaches are crucial to move from scattered data points to predictive continuous maps. Those modelling approaches are commonly run on the macrobial level, but spatio-temporal predictions of host-associated microbiomes are not being targeted. This is especially problematic as previous research has highlighted that host-associated microbes (microbiomes) may display distribution patterns that are not perfectly correlated with host animal biogeographies, but also with other factors such as prevailing environmental conditions. We here establish a new simulation approach and present predicted spatio-temporal distribution patterns of deep-sea sponge and coral microbiomes, making use of a combination of environmental data, host data and microbiome data to advance our understanding of deep-sea microbiomes. This approach allows predictions of microbiome spatio-temporal distribution patterns on scales that are currently not covered by classical sampling approaches at sea. This includes both predictions in space within regional oceanic provinces off eastern North America, and also in time, with predictions into the past and future, covering a time span of 214 years. In summary, our presented predictions allow (i) identification of microbial biodiversity hotspots in the past, present, and future, (ii) evaluation of microbial-macrobial connections at case-study sites through trait-based predictions, and (iii) identification of shifts in microbial community composition (key taxa) across environmental gradients and shifting environmental conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".