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Record W4392758768 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14111

Cascading impacts of extreme events across an interconnected and warming world

2024· preprint· en· W4392758768 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Laurie S. Huning, Manuela I. Brunner

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicClimate variability and models
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsGlobal warmingEnvironmental scienceClimate changeEnvironmental resource managementClimatologyGeographyNatural resource economicsEcologyEconomicsGeologyBiology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Extreme events (e.g., heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods, etc.) are anticipated to become more severe, persistent, and frequent throughout many parts of the world due to warming. Such extreme events occur across a diverse set of ecosystems and climatic regions and their multifaceted impacts cascade in space, time, and across sectors (e.g., water, energy, agriculture, economic, human health). To better understand the cascading impacts of extreme events and their feedbacks, we draw on recent examples such as the 2023 heatwaves and wildfires in Canada. In addition, we also examine other extreme events (e.g., droughts, floods) around the world and their feedbacks and interactions that pose challenges for modeling, monitoring, and managing associated risks. For example, we quantify how snowpack changes and drought across agricultural regions have wide-reaching impacts that affect remote areas. Our study highlights that the impacts of extreme events have important feedbacks that should be considered in resource and risk models and management as well as remote impacts that are not yet fully understood or well-tracked. Furthermore, we identify other challenges, existing knowledge gaps, and future directions to guide global monitoring and modeling of impact cascades for improved mitigation, adaptation, and climate change resilient policy advancements.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.011
Threshold uncertainty score0.022

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.002
Open science0.0010.003
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0070.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.057
GPT teacher head0.318
Teacher spread0.260 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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