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Record W4392759584 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12795

The association between tropical sea surface temperature variability and sentinel reporting of travel-related dengue 

2024· preprint· en· W4392759584 on OpenAlexaff
Stella Dafka, Michael Libman, Davidson H. Hamer, Joacim Rocklöv, Ralph Huits

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicMosquito-borne diseases and control
Canadian institutionsMcGill University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDengue feverTropical cycloneClimatologyEnvironmental scienceAssociation (psychology)Sea surface temperatureGeographyOceanographyMeteorologyGeologyVirologyMedicinePsychology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Oceanic-atmospheric interactions play a crucial role in the modulation of monsoon rainfall. This is the first study that directly investigates the impact of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the frequency of sentinel reporting of travel-related dengue from the Geosentinel global emerging infectious disease surveillance network, by using the latest climate reanalysis ERA-5 produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, for the period 2007 to 2019. More specifically, we explore lag structures and the associated spatial correlation patterns between travel-related dengue cases, SSTs, and total precipitation over the tropics. We found that the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs have a remote influence on dengue risk in global regions that exhibit distinct monsoon characteristics. The coupling between SST variations and rainfall is an important driver of travel-related dengue cases and could act as an early warning signal for outbreak preparedness and travel medicine preventive advice. Finally, our findings highlight the need to better understand the large-scale and local circulation response to changes in the pattern of tropical ocean warming, to be able to better predict extreme events such as droughts and floods and devise adaptation measures against dengue outbreaks.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.004
Threshold uncertainty score0.010

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.015
GPT teacher head0.291
Teacher spread0.276 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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