Associations between brake and tire wear-related PM2.5 metal components, particulate oxidative stress potential, and autism spectrum disorder in Southern California
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Air pollution is a global health concern, with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) constituents posing potential risks to human health, including children's neurodevelopment. Here we investigated associations between exposure during pregnancy and infancy to specific traffic-related PM2.5 components with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) diagnosis. For exposure assessment, we estimated PM2.5 components related to traffic exposure (Barium [Ba] as a marker of brake dust and Zinc [Zn] as a tire wear marker, Black Carbon [BC]) and oxidative stress potential (OSP) markers (Hydroxyl Radical [OPOH] formation, Dithiothreitol activity [OPDTT], reactive oxygen species [ROS]) modeled with land use regression with co-kriging based on an intensive air monitoring campaign. We assigned exposures to a cohort of 444,651 children born in Southern California between 2016 and 2019, among whom 11,466 ASD cases were diagnosed between 2018 and 2022, Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained with logistic regression for single pollutant and PM2.5 mass co-adjusted models, also adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. Among PM2.5 components, we found the strongest positive association with ASD for our brake wear marker Ba (ORper IQR = 1.29, 95 % CI: 1.24, 1.34). This was followed by an increased risk for all PM2.5 oxidative stress potential markers; the strongest association was with ROS formation (ORper IQR = 1.22, 95 % CI: 1.18, 1.25). PM2.5 mass was linked to ASD in Hispanic and Black children, but not White children, while traffic-related PM2.5 and OSP markers increased ASD risk across all groups. In neighborhoods with the lowest socioeconomic status (SES), associations with ASD were stronger for all examined pollutants compared to higher SES areas. Our findings suggest that brake wear-related PM2.5 and PM2.5 OSP are associated with ASD diagnosis in Southern California. These results suggest that strategies aimed at reducing the public health impacts of PM2.5 need to consider specific sources.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".