International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We study international trade and macroeconomic dynamics triggered by the imposition of sanctions.We begin with a tractable two-country model where Home and Foreign countries have comparative advantages in production of differentiated consumption goods and a commodity (e.g., gas), respectively.Home imposes sanctions on Foreign.Financial sanctions exclude a fraction of Foreign agents from the international bond market.Gas sanctions take the form of a ban on gas trade, equivalent to an appropriate price cap in our model.Differentiated goods trade sanctions exclude a fraction of Foreign and Home exporters from international trade.All sanctions lead to resource reallocation in both economies.Exchange rate movements reflect the direction of reallocation and the type of sanctions imposed rather than the success of the sanctions.Welfare analysis shows that gas sanctions are more costly for Home, while differentiated consumption goods trade sanctions are more costly for Foreign.A third country that refrains from joining the sanctions mitigates welfare losses in Foreign, but refraining from joining the sanctions is beneficial for the third country.These findings highlight the importance and the difficulty of international coordination when imposing sanctions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it