Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Rationale Body mass index (BMI) is associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. The effect of genetic variants aggregated into a polygenic score may elucidate the causal mechanisms and predict risk. Objectives To examine the associations of genetically predicted BMI with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in COPD. Methods We developed a polygenic score (PGS) for BMI (PGSBMI) and tested for associations of the PGSBMI with all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality in participants with COPD from the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD), ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points), and Framingham Heart studies. We calculated the difference between measured BMI and PGS-predicted BMI (BMIdiff) and categorized participants into groups of discordantly low (BMIdiff <20th percentile), concordant (BMIdiff between the 20th and 80th percentiles), and discordantly high (BMIdiff >80th percentile) BMI. We applied Cox models, examined potential nonlinear associations of the PGSBMI and BMIdiff with mortality, and summarized results with meta-analysis. Measurements and Main Results We observed significant nonlinear associations of measured BMI and BMIdiff, but not PGSBMI, with all-cause mortality. In meta-analyses, a one–standard deviation increase in the PGSBMI was associated with an increased hazard for cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12–1.49), but not for respiratory or all-cause mortality. Compared with participants with concordant measured and genetically predicted BMI, those with discordantly low BMI had higher risks for all-cause mortality (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.41–1.74) and respiratory death (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.61–2.51). Conclusions In people with COPD, a higher genetically predicted BMI is associated with higher cardiovascular mortality but not respiratory mortality. Individuals with a discordantly low BMI have higher all-cause and respiratory mortality rates than those with a concordant BMI.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".