Temporal Trends of Asthma Among Children in the Western Pacific Region From 1990 to 2045: Longitudinal Observational Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Asthma has become one of the most common chronic conditions worldwide, especially among children. Recent findings show that the prevalence of childhood asthma has increased by 12.6% over the past 30 years, with >262 million people currently affected globally. The reasons for the growing asthma epidemic remain complex and multifactorial. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide an up-to-date analysis of the changing global and regional asthma prevalence, mortality, disability, and risk factors among children aged <20 years by leveraging the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Findings from this study can help inform priority areas for intervention to alleviate the rising burden of childhood asthma globally. METHODS: The study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, concentrating on children aged 0 to 14 years with asthma. We conducted an in-depth analysis of asthma, including its age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), across diverse demographics, such as region, age, sex, and sociodemographic index, spanning 1990 to 2019. We also projected the future burden of the disease. RESULTS: Overall, in the Western Pacific Region, the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma among children increased slightly, from 3898.4 cases per 100,000 people in 1990 to 3924 per 100,000 in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate of asthma also increased slightly, from 979.2 to 994.9 per 100,000. In contrast, the age-standardized death rate of asthma decreased from 0.9 to 0.4 per 100,000 and the age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 234.9 to 189.7 per 100,000. At the country level, Japan experienced a considerable decrease in the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma among children, from 6669.1 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5071.5 per 100,000 in 2019. Regarding DALYs, Japan exhibited a notable reduction, from 300.6 to 207.6 per 100,000. Malaysia also experienced a DALY rate reduction, from 188.4 to 163.3 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2019. We project that the burden of disease in countries other than Japan and the Philippines will remain relatively stable up to 2045. CONCLUSIONS: The study indicates an increase in the prevalence and incidence of pediatric asthma, coupled with a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the Western Pacific Region between 1990 and 2019. These intricate phenomena appear to result from a combination of lifestyle shifts, environmental influences, and barriers to health care access. The findings highlight that nations such as Japan have achieved notable success in managing asthma. Overall, the study identified areas of improvement in view of persistent disease burden, underscoring the need for comprehensive collaborative efforts to mitigate the impact of pediatric asthma throughout the region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".