Association between time to colonoscopy after positive fecal testing and colorectal cancer outcomes in Alberta, Canada
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objective To quantify the associations between time to colonoscopy after a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT+) and colorectal cancer (CRC)-related outcomes in the context of a provincial, population-based CRC screening program. Setting Population-based, retrospective cohort study in Alberta, Canada, including Albertans aged 50–74 with at least one FIT+ in 2014–2017. Methods Study outcomes were CRC diagnosis after a FIT+ and a diagnostic follow-up colonoscopy in 2014–2019 and CRC stage at diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the relative risk of any CRC or advanced-stage CRC. Results were presented as crude odds ratio (OR) and adjusted OR (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results Of the 787,967 participants who had a FIT, 63,232 (8%) had a FIT+ and met the study's eligibility criteria. The risk of any CRC or advanced-stage CRC stayed high and was relatively consistent for follow-up colonoscopies performed within 1–12 months of the FIT+. After 12 months, the risk of CRC was considerably higher, particularly for advanced-stage CRC. The OR and aOR for any CRC were 1.40 (95% CI: 1.13–1.73; p < 0.05) and 1.20 (95% CI: 0.96–1.49), respectively, and the OR and aOR for advanced-stage CRC were 1.42 (95% CI: 0.98–2.08) and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.59–1.32), respectively, for colonoscopy follow-up within 12–18 months versus 1–2 months. Conclusions For Albertans who used FIT for CRC screening, a longer time interval between a FIT+ and follow-up colonoscopy, particularly over 12 months, increases the risk of having CRC and decreases the effectiveness of CRC screening programs.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it