Metabolic Dysfunction–Associated Fibrosis 5 (MAF-5) Score Predicts Liver Fibrosis Risk and Outcome in the General Population With Metabolic Dysfunction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is an unmet need for noninvasive tests to improve case-finding and aid primary care professionals in referring patients at high risk of liver disease. METHODS: A metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis (MAF-5) score was developed and externally validated in a total of 21,797 individuals with metabolic dysfunction in population-based (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, and Rotterdam Study) and hospital-based (from Antwerp and Bogota) cohorts. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was compared with FIB-4, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), LiverRisk score and steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE). MAF-5 was externally validated with liver stiffness measurement ≥8.0 kPa, with shear-wave elastography ≥7.5 kPa, and biopsy-proven steatotic liver disease according to Metavir and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scores, and was tested for prognostic performance (all-cause mortality). RESULTS: ), diabetes, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets. With this score, 60.9% was predicted at low, 14.1% at intermediate, and 24.9% at high risk of fibrosis. The observed prevalence was 3.3%, 7.9%, and 28.1%, respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve of MAF-5 (0.81) was significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.61), and outperformed the FIB-4 among young people (negative predictive value [NPV], 99%; area under the curve [AUC], 0.86 vs NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.51) and older adults (NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.75 vs NPV, 88%; AUC, 0.55). MAF-5 showed excellent performance to detect liver stiffness measurement ≥12 kPa (AUC, 0.86 training; AUC, 0.85 validation) and good performance in detecting liver stiffness and biopsy-proven liver fibrosis among the external validation cohorts. MAF-5 score >1 was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in (un)adjusted models (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.47-1.73). CONCLUSIONS: The MAF-5 score is a validated, age-independent, inexpensive referral tool to identify individuals at high risk of liver fibrosis and all-cause mortality in primary care populations, using simple variables.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".