A Digital Twin Development Framework for an Electrical Submersible Pump (ESP)
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Premature failure of a subsystem can be critical for an industrial cyber-physical system (CPS). A digital twin (DT)-assisted predictive maintenance procedure can reduce the risk of costly unplanned maintenance. This study presents a generalized DT development framework for an electrical submersible pump (ESP) that can assist in predictive maintenance. The framework is applied on a single-phase ESP as a proof of concept. The maximum winding temperature of the selected ESP is simulated using a multiphysics simulation tool with transient electromagnetic and transient heat transfer solvers. The simulation parameters were refined using data captured through an ESP free-run experiment. Simulating the total energy loss in the ESP stator and rotor and the transfer of heat from the outer fluid domain facilitates a relationship between the measurable external temperature and the maximum temperature in the stator winding. Following a design of experiment approach, a series of simulations were run to establish a statistical model for the winding temperature in terms of the fluid temperature, the time duration a particular temperature was persistent, and the initial maximum stator winding temperature. As the instantaneous maximum stator winding temperature is related to the remaining useful lifetime, it was shown using a case study that the proposed framework can prognosticate the ESP failure, assisting effective decision-making for predictive maintenance of a CPS. Received: 5 November 2023 | Revised: 5 February 2024 | Accepted: 8 March 2024 Conflicts of Interest The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest to this work. Data Availability Statement The information/data required for reproducing the results is already presented in the manuscript. Author Contribution Statement Mihiran Galagedarage Don: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Formal analysis, Data curation, Writing - original draft, Visualization, Project administration. Sampath Liyanarachchi: Investigation, Writing - review & editing. Thumeera R. Wanasinghe: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Validation, Resources, Writing - review & editing, Supervision, Project administration.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it