Ultrasound remission after biologic induction and long-term endoscopic remission in Crohn's disease: a prospective cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The Bowel Ultrasound Score (BUSS) accurately detects therapy-related changes by using the Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's disease (SES-CD) as the reference standard. We aimed to evaluate ultrasound remission as a treatment target and its prediction for long-term endoscopic remission. Methods: This single-centre prospective observational study, based at a tertiary referral centre in Milan, Italy, enrolled, between March 1, 2018, and January 31, 2021, adult patients with active CD (SES-CD >2) who were starting biologics. Colonoscopy and IUS was performed at baseline and at 12 months (mean 12.8 ± 4.2). The primary outcome was the predictive value of ultrasound remission at week 12 (BUSS ≤3.52) for long-term endoscopic remission at 12 months. The International Bowel Ultrasound Segmental Activity Score (IBUS-SAS) was also calculated and optimal cut-point to detect endoscopic remission was identified through ROC analysis. Findings: 93 patients with CD were included. Of these, 22 patients (24%) achieved endoscopic remission. Week 12 ultrasound remission predicted endoscopic remission (59% compared with 41% of the patients who were not in ultrasound remission; OR 9.93, 95% CI 3.10-31.80; p < 0.001), while week 12 calprotectin values (<50, <100, <250 μg/g) did not. Week 12 ultrasound activity was associated with failure to achieve long-term endoscopic remission (NPV 87%, PPV 54%). IBUS-SAS cut-off to discriminate endoscopic remission was 22.8 (AUC 0.906). ROC curve comparison showed no-significant difference between BUSS and IBUS-SAS (p = 0.46) for detecting endoscopic remission. Interpretation: Early ultrasound remission predicts long-term endoscopic remission, making it a valuable early treatment target for clinical practice and in clinical trials. Larger multicentre validation studies are warranted to confirm these findings. Funding: None.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".