The quest for explosive bubbles in the Indonesian Rupiah/US exchange rate: Does the uncertainty trinity matter?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) technique is performed to resolve whether the Indonesian Rupiah/US exchange rate has experienced multiple explosive bubbles. The GSADF uncovers that the Indonesian Rupiah/US exchange rate deviates from the fundamental values by six times from January 1985 to September 2023, periodically indicating the presence of numerous explosive behaviors. Once the full-sample period separates into the managed-floating regime and the free-floating regime, the GSADF still detects multiple bubbles. Of particular curiosity on uncertainty trinity, this study underlines that global geopolitical risk negatively drives explosive actions in the ratio of exchange rates for non-traded and traded goods. The global economic policy uncertainty negatively affects speculative bubbles in the exchange rate and the ratio of exchange rates for non-traded. The country's geopolitical risks negatively strike only speculative bubbles in the exchange rate. Further, we find heterogeneity in our results by examining different exchange rate systems. The robustness checks further firmly ascertain across baseline empirical findings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".