Satellite-Derived Estimate of City-Level Methane Emissions from Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cities are important sources of anthropogenic methane emissions. Municipal governments can play a role in reducing those emissions to support climate change mitigation, but they need information on the emission rate to contextualize mitigation actions and track progress. Herein, we examine the application of satellite data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) to estimate city-level methane emission rates in a case study of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Due to low and variable annual observational coverage, we integrated valid TROPOMI observations over three years (2020–2022) and used mass balance modeling to derive a long-term mean estimate of the emission rate. The resulting column-mean dry-air mole fraction (XCH4) enhancement over Calgary was small (4.7 ppb), but within the city boundaries, we identified local hot spots in the vicinity of known emission sources (wastewater treatment facilities and landfills). The city-level emission estimate from mass balance was 215.4 ± 132.8 t CH4/d. This estimate is approximately four times larger than estimates from Canada’s gridded National Inventory Report of anthropogenic CH4 emissions and six times larger than the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v8.0). We note that valid TROPOMI observations are more common in warmer months and occur during a narrow daily overpass time slot over Calgary. The limited valid observations in combination with the constrained temporal observational coverage may bias the emission estimate. Overall, the findings from this case study highlight an approach to derive a screening-level estimate of city-level methane emission rates using TROPOMI data in settings with low observational coverage.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".