Encounter Circumstances of Asteroid 99942 Apophis with the Catalog of Known Asteroids
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Asteroid 99942 Apophis will pass near Earth in 2029 April. Expected to miss our planet by a safe margin, that could change if Apophis's path were perturbed by a collision with another asteroid in the interim. Though the statistical chance of such a collision is minuscule, the high risk associated with Apophis motivates us to examine even this very unlikely scenario. In this work, we identify encounters between known asteroids and Apophis up to 2029 April. Here we show that Apophis will encounter the 1300 m diameter asteroid 4544 Xanthus in 2026 December. Their minimum orbit intersection distance is less than 10,000 km, with Apophis passing that closest point just 4 hr before Xanthus. Though a direct collision is ruled out, the encounter is close enough that material accompanying Xanthus (if any) could strike Apophis. We also identify other asteroid encounters that deserve monitoring.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it