Impacts of winter warming events on spruce budworm: the importance of timing
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Winter climate change constitutes not only a shift in chronic conditions (i.e., shorter length and warmer average temperatures) but will also influence the dynamics of extreme warming events. The latter may be particularly important for the performance and survival of insects, given their susceptibility to temperature variation. However, metabolic sensitivity changes over the course of winter diapause, and thus, insect responses to warming may vary depending on when the event occurs. To determine the influence of warm-up timing, we exposed the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana ((Clem.), Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), to acute warming events in early-, mid-, and late-dormancy and measured impacts on survival, performance, and biochemistry. While we did not observe any impacts of warm-up timing on performance, survival to the adult stage was significantly reduced in response to earlier warming. Additionally, glycogen concentration was significantly higher in response to early and late warming exposure. Collectively, these results suggest that the timing of extreme winter warming events matters, with consequences for both lethal and sublethal responses.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it