Do arrests (and killings) deter violent extremism? A comparative analysis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
There is an ever-growing body of evidence that suggests that there exists a significant degree of overlap between violent extremism (VE) and ordinary crime, both at the conceptual level and in terms of patterns and predictors.Countries differ considerably in their approaches to countering violent extremism (CVE).Yet, at least in the west, one common feature is the criminal justice system, whose role is essentially the same for VE as it is for other forms of crime.Despite this, there is little quantitative research on policing and criminal justice system effects on VE.Among the few studies that do exist, most focus on single countries, and examine long observation periods.Our analysis compares two key democratic countries that have received less attention, Canada and Sweden, and finds evidence of heterogeneous effects and patterns concerning how arrests impact the risk of future VE.This suggests that studies focusing on single contexts may have limited generalizability and that current wisdom concerning deterrence-backlash effects is more limited than previously thought.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it