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Record W4393435695 · doi:10.54097/x446dk79

Time Series Data Forecasting: Alcohol Sales Prediction Based on Prophet

2024· article· en· W4393435695 on OpenAlexaff
Yuhan Kuang

Bibliographic record

VenueHighlights in Science Engineering and Technology · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicTime Series Analysis and Forecasting
Canadian institutionsDurham College
Fundersnot available
KeywordsSeries (stratigraphy)Time seriesSales forecastingEconometricsComputer scienceMathematicsMachine learningGeology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Sales forecasting plays an important role in a business’s operation. It points out the outline of future development and customer targets for companies. Due to the fact that sales forecasting is mostly based on large amount of past data, machine learning has a successful implementation in this field. This paper employed Prophet, a package specialized in dealing time series, to forecast the alcohol sales amount across the USA. The data showed significant trends and holiday effects that fit with the algorithm behind Prophet. By adjusting the parameter functions, the model generated by Prophet demonstrated impressive ability on forecasting the third year’s data based on the previous two. A variety of performance indicators, including Mean squared error (MSE), Mean absolute percent error (MAPE), and Median absolute percentage error (MDAP) and so on, were used to evaluate the predicted results The result of this study implies that machine learning has a huge potential in the field of sales forecasting.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.902
Threshold uncertainty score0.477

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.003
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.020
GPT teacher head0.223
Teacher spread0.203 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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