Assessing the emergence time of SARS-CoV-2 zoonotic spillover
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding the evolution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its relationship to other coronaviruses in the wild is crucial for preventing future virus outbreaks. While the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic remains uncertain, mounting evidence suggests the direct involvement of the bat and pangolin coronaviruses in the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. To unravel the early days of a probable zoonotic spillover event, we analyzed genomic data from various coronavirus strains from both human and wild hosts. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was performed using multiple datasets, using strict and relaxed clock evolutionary models to estimate the occurrence times of key speciation, gene transfer, and recombination events affecting the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and its closest relatives. We found strong evidence supporting the presence of temporal structure in datasets containing SARS-CoV-2 variants, enabling us to estimate the time of SARS-CoV-2 zoonotic spillover between August and early October 2019. In contrast, datasets without SARS-CoV-2 variants provided mixed results in terms of temporal structure. However, they allowed us to establish that the presence of a statistically robust clade in the phylogenies of gene S and its receptor-binding (RBD) domain, including two bat (BANAL) and two Guangdong pangolin coronaviruses (CoVs), is due to the horizontal gene transfer of this gene from the bat CoV to the pangolin CoV that occurred in the middle of 2018. Importantly, this clade is closely located to SARS-CoV-2 in both phylogenies. This phylogenetic proximity had been explained by an RBD gene transfer from the Guangdong pangolin CoV to a very recent ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 in some earlier works in the field before the BANAL coronaviruses were discovered. Overall, our study provides valuable insights into the timeline and evolutionary dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".