Sentinel-1-Based Soil Freeze–Thaw Detection in Agro-Forested Areas: A Case Study in Southern Québec, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Nearly 50 million km2 of global land experiences seasonal transitions from predominantly frozen to thawed conditions, significantly impacting various ecosystems and hydrologic processes. In this study, we assessed the capability to retrieve surface freeze–thaw (FT) conditions using Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data time series at two agro-forested study sites, St-Marthe and St-Maurice, in southern Québec, Canada. In total, 18 plots were instrumented to monitor soil temperature and derive soil freezing probabilities at 2 and 10 cm depths during 2020–21 and 2021–22. Three change detection algorithms were tested: backscatter differences (∆σ) derived from thawed reference (Delta), the freeze–thaw index (FTI), and a newly developed exponential freeze–thaw algorithm (EFTA). Various probabilistic mixed models were compared to identify the model and predictor variables that best predicted soil freezing probability. VH polarization backscatter signals processed with the EFTA and used as predictors in a logistic model led to improved predictions of soil freezing probability at 2 cm (Pseudo-R2 = 0.54) compared to other approaches. The EFTA could effectively address the limitations of the Delta algorithm caused by backscatter fluctuations in the shoulder seasons, resulting in more precise estimates of FT events. Furthermore, the inclusion of crop types as plot-level effects within the probabilistic model also slightly improved the soil freezing probability prediction at each monitored plot, with marginal and conditional R2 values of 0.59 and 0.61, respectively. The model accurately classified observed binary ‘frozen’ or ‘thawed’ states with 85.2% accuracy. Strong cross-level interactions were also observed between crop types and the EFTA derived from VH backscatter, indicating that crop type modulated the backscatter response to soil freezing. This study represents the first application of the EFTA and a probabilistic approach to detect frozen soil conditions in agro-forested areas in southern Quebec, Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".