Predicting which patients with cancer will see a psychiatrist or counsellor from their initial oncology consultation document using natural language processing
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Patients with cancer often have unmet psychosocial needs. Early detection of who requires referral to a counsellor or psychiatrist may improve their care. This work used natural language processing to predict which patients will see a counsellor or psychiatrist from a patient's initial oncology consultation document. We believe this is the first use of artificial intelligence to predict psychiatric outcomes from non-psychiatric medical documents. METHODS: This retrospective prognostic study used data from 47,625 patients at BC Cancer. We analyzed initial oncology consultation documents using traditional and neural language models to predict whether patients would see a counsellor or psychiatrist in the 12 months following their initial oncology consultation. RESULTS: Here, we show our best models achieved a balanced accuracy (receiver-operating-characteristic area-under-curve) of 73.1% (0.824) for predicting seeing a psychiatrist, and 71.0% (0.784) for seeing a counsellor. Different words and phrases are important for predicting each outcome. CONCLUSION: These results suggest natural language processing can be used to predict psychosocial needs of patients with cancer from their initial oncology consultation document. Future research could extend this work to predict the psychosocial needs of medical patients in other settings.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it