Measuring high-speed train delay severity: Static and dynamic analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper focuses on optimizing the management of delayed trains in operational scenarios by scientifically categorizing train delay levels. It employs static and dynamic models grounded in real-world train delay data from high-speed railways. This classification aids dispatchers in swiftly identifying and predicting delay extents, thus enhancing mitigation strategies' efficiency. Key indicators, encompassing initial delay duration, station impacts, average station delay, delayed trains' cascading effects, and average delay per affected train, inform the classification. Applying the K-means clustering algorithm to standardized delay indicators yields an optimized categorization of delayed trains into four levels, reflecting varying risk levels. This static classification offers a comprehensive overview of delay dynamics. Furthermore, utilizing Markov chains, the study delves into sequential dynamic analyses, accounting for China's railway context and specifically addressing fluctuations during the Spring Festival travel rush. This research, combining static and dynamic approaches, provides valuable insights for bolstering railway operational efficiency and resilience amidst diverse delay scenarios.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".