Earth-directed coronal mass ejection shock sheaths as drivers of minor forbush decreases
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) directed toward Earth can modulate cosmic ray fluxes detected on the ground. We provide definitive evidence that even moderately fast CMEs produce small-scale Forbush decreases (FDs) - brief ≤ 3% cosmic ray exclusions over a day. Tracking fronted halo CMEs with coordinated solar imaging and in situ monitoring reveals timing and efficiency signatures statistically linking intensity drops with transient shock passages at ejecta fronts. The reductions originate in weak sheath scattering zones featuring elliptical cross-sections preferentially oriented edge-on to Earth. Connecting properties of these subtle effects to remote CME structure and kinematics elucidates inner heliospheric shock physics below major FDs detection thresholds (CR ≥ 3%). This reveals an entirely overlooked category of minor interplanetary perturbations by common solar eruptions insufficient to spark major storms.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".