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Record W4394797669 · doi:10.1101/2024.04.12.24305195

Sustained Human Outbreak of a New MPXV Clade I Lineage in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

2024· preprint· en· W4394797669 on OpenAlexaff
Emmanuel Hasivirwe Vakaniaki, Cris Kacita, Eddy Kinganda-Lusamaki, Áine O’Toole, Tony Wawina-Bokalanga, Daniel Mukadi‐Bamuleka, Adrienne Amuri-Aziza, Nadine Malyamungu-Bubala, Franklin Mweshi Kumbana, Léandre Mutimbwa-Mambo, Freddy Belesi-Siangoli, Yves Mujula, Edyth Parker, Pauline-Chloé Muswamba-Kayembe, Sabin S. Nundu, Robert Shongo Lushima, Jean-Claude Makangara-Cigolo, Noëlla Mulopo-Mukanya, Elisabeth Pukuta Simbu, Prince Akil-Bandali, Hugo Kavunga, Koen Vercauteren, Nadia A. Sam‐Agudu, Edward J. Mills, Olivier Tshiani-Mbaya, Nicole A. Hoff, Anne W. Rimoin, Lisa E. Hensley, Jason Kindrachuk, Ahidjo Ayouba, Martine Peeters, Éric Delaporte, Steve Ahuka‐Mundeke, Jean B. Nachega, Jean‐Jacques Muyembé‐Tamfum, Andrew Rambaut, Laurens Liesenborghs, Placide Mbala‐Kingebeni

Bibliographic record

VenuemedRxiv · 2024
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldImmunology and Microbiology
TopicPoxvirus research and outbreaks
Canadian institutionsUniversity of ManitobaMcMaster UniversityImpact
FundersDefense Threat Reduction AgencyFonds Wetenschappelijk OnderzoekWellcome TrustUniversiteit StellenboschCase Western Reserve UniversityVlaamse regeringUniversity of PittsburghU.S. Department of Agriculture
KeywordsCladeOutbreakTransmission (telecommunications)Lineage (genetic)Contact tracingMonkeypoxBiologyVirologyDiseaseMedicinePhylogenetic treeCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)GeneGeneticsInfectious disease (medical specialty)Pathology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

ABSTRACT Background Monkeypox virus (MPXV) attracted global attention in 2022 during a widespread outbreak linked primarily to sexual contact. Clade I MPXV is prevalent in Central Africa and characterized by severe disease and high mortality, while Clade II is confined to West Africa and associated with milder illness. A Clade IIb MPXV emerged in Nigeria in 2017, with protracted human-to-human transmission a forerunner of the global Clade II B.1 lineage outbreak in 2022. In October 2023, a large mpox outbreak emerged in the Kamituga mining region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), of which we conducted an outbreak investigation. Methods Surveillance data and hospital records were collected between October 2023 and January 2024. Blood samples and skin/oropharyngeal swabs were obtained for molecular diagnosis at the National Institute of Biomedical Research, Kinshasa. MPXV genomes were sequenced and analyzed using Illumina NextSeq 2000 and bioinformatic tools. Results The Kamituga mpox outbreak spread rapidly, with 241 suspected cases reported within 5 months of the first reported case. Of 108 confirmed cases, 29% were sex workers, highlighting sexual contact as a key mode of infection. Genomic analysis revealed a distinct MPXV Clade Ib lineage, divergent from previously sequenced Clade I strains in DRC. Predominance of APOBEC3-type mutations and estimated time of emergence around mid-September 2023 suggest recent human-to-human transmission. Conclusions Urgent measures, including reinforced, expanded surveillance, contact tracing, case management support, and targeted vaccination are needed to contain this new pandemic-potential Clade Ib outbreak.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.020
Threshold uncertainty score0.041

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.032
GPT teacher head0.305
Teacher spread0.273 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations51
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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