Animating Hypothetical Trips to Communicate Space-Based Temporal Uncertainty on Digital Maps
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper explores a novel approach to communicating plausible space-based temporal variability of travel durations. Digital maps most often only convey single numerical values as the estimated duration for a path and this piece of information does not account for the multiple scenarios hidden behind this point estimate, nor for the temporal uncertainty along the route (e.g., the likelihood of being slowed down at an intersection). We explore conveying this uncertainty by animating hypothetical trips onto maps in the form of moving dots along one or more paths. We conducted a study with 16 participants and observed that they were able to correctly extract and infer simple information from our uncertainty visualizations but that identifying moving dots' changes in speed is a more complex task. We discuss design challenges and implications for future visualizations of space-based temporal uncertainty.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it