Bayesian Networks for Prescreening in Depression: Algorithm Development and Validation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals with depressive symptomatology (DS) promptly and effectively is of paramount importance for providing timely treatment. Machine learning models have shown promise in this area; however, studies often fall short in demonstrating the practical benefits of using these models and fail to provide tangible real-world applications. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to establish a novel methodology for identifying individuals likely to exhibit DS, identify the most influential features in a more explainable way via probabilistic measures, and propose tools that can be used in real-world applications. METHODS: The study used 3 data sets: PROACTIVE, the Brazilian National Health Survey (Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde [PNS]) 2013, and PNS 2019, comprising sociodemographic and health-related features. A Bayesian network was used for feature selection. Selected features were then used to train machine learning models to predict DS, operationalized as a score of ≥10 on the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire. The study also analyzed the impact of varying sensitivity rates on the reduction of screening interviews compared to a random approach. RESULTS: The methodology allows the users to make an informed trade-off among sensitivity, specificity, and a reduction in the number of interviews. At the thresholds of 0.444, 0.412, and 0.472, determined by maximizing the Youden index, the models achieved sensitivities of 0.717, 0.741, and 0.718, and specificities of 0.644, 0.737, and 0.766 for PROACTIVE, PNS 2013, and PNS 2019, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.736, 0.801, and 0.809 for these 3 data sets, respectively. For the PROACTIVE data set, the most influential features identified were postural balance, shortness of breath, and how old people feel they are. In the PNS 2013 data set, the features were the ability to do usual activities, chest pain, sleep problems, and chronic back problems. The PNS 2019 data set shared 3 of the most influential features with the PNS 2013 data set. However, the difference was the replacement of chronic back problems with verbal abuse. It is important to note that the features contained in the PNS data sets differ from those found in the PROACTIVE data set. An empirical analysis demonstrated that using the proposed model led to a potential reduction in screening interviews of up to 52% while maintaining a sensitivity of 0.80. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed a novel methodology for identifying individuals with DS, demonstrating the utility of using Bayesian networks to identify the most significant features. Moreover, this approach has the potential to substantially reduce the number of screening interviews while maintaining high sensitivity, thereby facilitating improved early identification and intervention strategies for individuals experiencing DS.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.047 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".