Sea ice influence on male polar bear survival in Hudson Bay
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Environmental variability and seasonality of resources influence species distribution and demographic parameters such as survival. We quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of sea ice that remains in Hudson Bay during break-up (remnant ice) and assessed relationships with apparent survival for three age classes of male polar bears ( Ursus maritimus Phipps, 1774): subadult (1–4 years), prime age (5–19 years), and senescent (≥20 years) captured in Western Hudson Bay in 1980–2019. Remnant ice distribution varied annually, and we identified ice-related covariates that were correlated with detection probabilities and male apparent survival. Apparent survival declined by 10% for prime age males during the earliest retreat dates within Hudson Bay. Apparent survival for senescent bears declined during earlier sea ice retreat within western Hudson Bay. Subadult apparent survival was time constant and not significantly influenced by sea ice; however, detection probability was higher when remnant ice occurred in the west compared to the eastern half of Hudson Bay. Our results suggest that spatiotemporal sea dynamics at varying spatial scales affected males based on age class, had important impacts on estimating apparent survival, and has implications for assessing population status.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".