Predicting the occurrence of mild cognitive impairment in Parkinson’s disease using structural MRI data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a common symptom observed in individuals with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and a main risk factor for progressing to dementia. Our objective was to identify early anatomical brain changes that precede the transition from healthy cognition to MCI in PD. Methods Structural T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging data of PD patients with healthy cognition at baseline were downloaded from the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative database. Patients were divided into two groups based on the annual cognitive assessments over a 5-year time span: (i) PD patients with unstable healthy cognition who developed MCI over a 5-year follow-up (PD-UHC, n = 52), and (ii) PD patients who maintained stable healthy cognitive function over the same period (PD-SHC, n = 52). These 52 PD-SHC were selected among 192 PD-SHC patients using propensity score matching method to have similar demographic and clinical characteristics with PD-UHC at baseline. Seventy-five percent of these were used to train a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to distinguish between the PD-UHC and PD-SHC groups, and tested on the remaining 25% of individuals. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) feature analysis was utilized to identify the most informative brain regions in SVM classifier. Results The average accuracy of classifying PD-UHC vs. PD-SHC was 80.76%, with 82.05% sensitivity and 79.48% specificity using 10-fold cross-validation. The performance was similar in the hold-out test sets with all accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity at 76.92%. SHAP analysis showed that the most influential brain regions in the prediction model were located in the frontal, occipital, and cerebellar regions as well as midbrain. Discussion Our machine learning-based analysis yielded promising results in identifying PD individuals who are at risk of cognitive decline from the earliest disease stage and revealed the brain regions which may be linked to the prospective cognitive decline in PD before clinical symptoms emerge.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".