Modeling Funding for Industrial Projects Using Machine Learning: Evidence from Morocco
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Moroccan manufacturing companies investing in the metallurgical, mechanical, and electromechanical industries sector are among the contributors to the growth of the national economy. The projects they are awarded do not have the same specific features as those of operating activities within other companies. They share several common features, making them particularly complex to fund. In such circumstances, supervised machine learning seems to be a suitable instrument to help such enterprises in their funding decisions, especially given that linear regression methods are inadequate for predicting human decision making as human thinking is a complicated system and not linear. Based on 5198 industrial projects of 53 firms operating in the said sector, four machine learning models are used to predict the funding method for some industrial projects, including are decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting, and K-nearest neighbors (KNN). Among the four machine learning methods, the gradient boosting method appears to be most effective overall, with an accuracy of 99%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".