Temporal variations in the serogroup distribution of invasive meningococcal disease in Quebec, Canada, due to emerging unique clade of serogroup Y strain belonging to the Sequence Type-23 clonal complex
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To identify recent trends in invasive meningococcal diseases (IMD) in Quebec, Canada, with a focus on MenY cases and MenY strains. METHODS: IMD cases and MenY strains from January 1, 2015 to August 11, 2023 were analyzed for clonal analysis and prediction of susceptibility to MenB vaccines. MenY strains of ST-23 CC from Quebec were analyzed with global MenY strains by core-genomic multi-locus sequence typing (cg-MLST). RESULTS: Since 2015 the serogroup distribution of IMD in Quebec has shifted from predominantly MenB to mainly MenY, with most (80.9 %) of the latter belonging to ST-23 CC. The median age of MenY cases due to ST-23 CC were statistically younger than MenY cases due to non-ST-23 CC. MenY of ST-23 CC showed genetic diversity and the major genetic cluster were similar to the Swedish Y1 strain. The increase in invasive MenY disease in Quebec was due to a sub-clade of Lineage 23.1 which caused an elevated proportion of severe disease in young adults. CONCLUSION: The increase in invasive MenY disease in Quebec, Canada was driven by the expansion of a sub-clade of Lineage 23.1 in young adults. Currently available quadrivalent A,C,W,Y-conjugate meningococcal vaccines were predicted to provide protection against these strains.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".