Temporal variations in the serogroup distribution of invasive meningococcal disease in Quebec, Canada, due to emerging unique clade of serogroup Y strain belonging to the Sequence Type-23 clonal complex
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To identify recent trends in invasive meningococcal diseases (IMD) in Quebec, Canada, with a focus on MenY cases and MenY strains. METHODS: IMD cases and MenY strains from January 1, 2015 to August 11, 2023 were analyzed for clonal analysis and prediction of susceptibility to MenB vaccines. MenY strains of ST-23 CC from Quebec were analyzed with global MenY strains by core-genomic multi-locus sequence typing (cg-MLST). RESULTS: Since 2015 the serogroup distribution of IMD in Quebec has shifted from predominantly MenB to mainly MenY, with most (80.9 %) of the latter belonging to ST-23 CC. The median age of MenY cases due to ST-23 CC were statistically younger than MenY cases due to non-ST-23 CC. MenY of ST-23 CC showed genetic diversity and the major genetic cluster were similar to the Swedish Y1 strain. The increase in invasive MenY disease in Quebec was due to a sub-clade of Lineage 23.1 which caused an elevated proportion of severe disease in young adults. CONCLUSION: The increase in invasive MenY disease in Quebec, Canada was driven by the expansion of a sub-clade of Lineage 23.1 in young adults. Currently available quadrivalent A,C,W,Y-conjugate meningococcal vaccines were predicted to provide protection against these strains.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".