Not missing at random: Missing data are associated with clinical status and trajectories in an electronic monitoring longitudinal study of bipolar disorder
Bibliographic record
Abstract
There is limited information on the association between participants' clinical status or trajectories and missing data in electronic monitoring studies of bipolar disorder (BD). We collected self-ratings scales and sensor data in 145 adults with BD. Using a new metric, Missing Data Ratio (MDR), we assessed missing self-rating data and sensor data monitoring activity and sleep. Missing data were lowest for participants in the midst of a depressive episode, intermediate for participants with subsyndromal symptoms, and highest for participants who were euthymic. Over a mean ± SD follow-up of 246 ± 181 days, missing data remained unchanged for participants whose clinical status did not change throughout the study (i.e., those who entered the study in a depressive episode and did not improve, or those who entered the study euthymic and remained euthymic). Conversely, when participants' clinical status changed during the study (e.g., those who entered the study euthymic and experienced the occurrence of a depressive episode), missing data for self-rating scales increased, but not for sensor data. Overall missing data were associated with participants' clinical status and its changes, suggesting that these are not missing at random.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".