A Comprehensive Machine and Deep Learning Approach for Aerosol Optical Depth Forecasting: New Evidence from the Arabian Peninsula
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Accurate forecasting of environmental pollution indicators holds significant importance in diverse fields, including climate modeling, environmental monitoring, and public health. In this study, we investigate a wide range of machine learning and deep learning models to enhance Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) predictions for the Arabian Peninsula (AP) region, one of the world’s main dust source regions. Additionally, we explore the impact of feature extraction and their different types on the forecasting performance of each of the proposed models. Preprocessing of the data involves inputting missing values, data deseasonalization, and data normalization. Subsequently, hyperparameter optimization is performed on each model using grid search. The empirical results of the basic, hybrid and combined models revealed that the convolutional long short-term memory and Bayesian ridge models significantly outperformed the other basic models. Moreover, for the combined models, specifically the weighted averaging scheme, exhibit remarkable predictive accuracy, outperforming individual models and demonstrating superior performance in longer-term forecasts. Our findings emphasize the efficacy of combining distinct models and highlight the potential of the convolutional long short-term memory and Bayesian ridge models for univariate time series forecasting, particularly in the context of AOD predictions. These accurate daily forecasts bear practical implications for policymakers in various areas such as tourism, transportation, and public health, enabling better planning and resource allocation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".