Abstract PO5-05-14: Survival in Young Women with De Novo or Recurrent Metastatic Breast Cancer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background. Approximately 12,000 women aged 40 years or younger are diagnosed with breast cancer every year in the United States alone. Limited data exist regarding survival in young women with metastatic breast cancer (MBC), particularly when considering modern tumor subtyping and treatment, though previous studies have suggested that patients presenting with MBC at diagnosis (de novo stage IV) have better prognosis than those who develop recurrent MBC after initial diagnosis of stage 0-III disease. We sought to determine survival rates in young patients with MBC stratified by disease presentation (de novo versus recurrent) and subtype. Methods. The Young Women’s Breast Cancer Study (YWS) is a multicenter, prospective cohort which enrolled 1,302 women diagnosed with stage 0-IV breast cancer at age ≤40 from 13 North American academic and community-based sites from 2006-2016. The current median follow-up is 10.1 (range 0.4-16.3) years. Histopathology slides were centrally reviewed for 97% of the participants, and clinical tumor molecular subtypes have been detailed. In the recurrent group, receptors were obtained from the initial breast surgery. Descriptive analyses were used to characterize patients with de novo or recurrent MBC, including demographic and disease characteristics, and survival rates. Overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test between those who presented with de novo and relapsed disease overall and within tumor subtypes. Results. Among 246 patients included in this analysis, 74.0% (n=182) had recurrent MBC and 26.0% (n=64) had de novo MBC. Most patients were white (n=208, 84.6%), while 6.9% were Asian (n=17), 4.5% Black (n=11), 0.8% Native American (n=2), 0.8% multiracial (n=2) and 2.4% other/unknown (n=6). A total of 4.5% of patients were Hispanic (n=11). Median age at diagnosis of de novo MBC was 37 years and 40 years for diagnosis of metastasis in the recurrent group. Median disease-free interval was 3.23 (range 0.32 – 13.84) years for the recurrent MBC group. Among all patients with MBC, most (55.7%, n=137) had estrogen receptor (ER) and/or progesterone receptor (PR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative disease, whereas 17.9% (n=44) had ER and/or PR-positive HER2-positive, 7.3% (n=18) had ER/PR-negative HER2-positive, and 18.7% (n=46) had triple-negative tumors. A greater proportion of participants (43.8%, n=28) had HER2-positive disease in the de novo group than in the recurrent group (18.7%, n=34), P=< 0.0001. A total of 10.9% (n=7) of de novo patients had a germline BRCA mutation, compared to 13.7% (n=25) in the recurrent group. Median survival was 5.09 (95% CI: 3.74 – 6.38) years in the de novo group and 2.63 (95% CI: 1.98 – 3.21) years in the recurrent MBC group (P=0.0004). When stratifying by subtype, survival among patients with de novo ER and/or PR-positive HER2-positive disease was longer than among patients with recurrent disease (P=0.0149), whereas there were no statistically significant differences in survival between the de novo and recurrent disease groups in other disease subtypes (Table 1). Conclusion. Survival in young women with MBC is highly heterogeneous and varies substantially by tumor subtype and disease presentation. Those with de novo ER and/or PR-positive HER2-positive subtype appear to have better outcomes than those with recurrent MBC with the same subtype. These findings can inform patient care and potential future research to improve outcomes for young patients with MBC. Table 1: Median survival by disease presentation and subtype * 1 patient with recurrent MBC was not included because the initial diagnosis was DCIS MBC: metastatic breast cancer; OS: overall survival; CI: confidence interval; ER: estrogen receptor; PR: progesterone receptor; HER2: human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 Citation Format: Leticia Varella, Yue Zheng, Shoshana Rosenberg, Gregory Kirkner, Craig Snow, Kathryn Ruddy, Rulla Tamimi, Jeffrey Peppercorn, Lidia Schapira, Virginia Borges, Steven Come, Laura Collins, Ellen Warner, Kate Dibble, Eric Winer, Ann Partridge. Survival in Young Women with De Novo or Recurrent Metastatic Breast Cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO5-05-14.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".