Risk Stratification of Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis and Ankylosing Spondylitis for Treatment with Tofacitinib: A Review of Current Clinical Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this commentary, we review clinical data which helps inform individualized benefit-risk assessment for tofacitinib in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and ankylosing spondylitis (AS). ORAL Surveillance, a safety trial of patients ≥ 50 years of age with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and cardiovascular risk factors, found increased rates of safety outcomes (including major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE], malignancies excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, and venous thromboembolism) with tofacitinib versus tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi). Post hoc analyses of ORAL Surveillance have identified subpopulations with different relative risk versus TNFi; higher risk with tofacitinib was confined to patients ≥ 65 years of age and/or long-time current/past smokers, and specifically for MACE, patients with a history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). In patients without these risk factors, risk differences between tofacitinib and TNFi could not be detected. Given differences in demographics, pathophysiology, and comorbidities, we sought to examine whether the risk stratification observed in RA is also appropriate for PsA and AS. Data from the PsA tofacitinib development program show low absolute risk of safety outcomes in patients < 65 years of age and never smokers, and low MACE risk in patients with no history of ASCVD, consistent with results from ORAL Surveillance. No MACE, malignancies, or venous thromboembolism were reported in the tofacitinib AS development program. The mechanism of the ORAL Surveillance safety findings is unknown, and there are no similar prospective studies of sufficient size and duration. Accordingly, it is appropriate to use a precautionary approach and extrapolate differentiating risk factors identified from ORAL Surveillance (age ≥ 65 years, long-time current/past smoking, and history of ASCVD) to PsA and AS. We recommend an individualized approach to treatment decisions based on these readily identifiable risk factors, in line with updated labeling for Janus kinase inhibitors and international guidelines for the treatment of PsA and AS.Trial Registration: NCT02092467, NCT01262118, NCT01484561, NCT00147498, NCT00413660, NCT00550446, NCT00603512, NCT00687193, NCT01164579, NCT00976599, NCT01059864, NCT01359150, NCT02147587, NCT00960440, NCT00847613, NCT00814307, NCT00856544, NCT00853385, NCT01039688, NCT02281552, NCT02187055, NCT02831855, NCT00413699, NCT00661661, NCT01877668, NCT01882439, NCT01976364, NCT00678210, NCT01710046, NCT01241591, NCT01186744, NCT01276639, NCT01309737, NCT01163253, NCT01786668, NCT03502616.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".