Upper Stratospheric Temperature Trends: New Results from OSIRIS
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Temperature trends in the upper stratosphere, particularly above ~45 km are difficult to quantify due to a deficit of long-term observational data in this region. The recent v7.3 upper stratospheric (35–60 km) temperature data product from the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) includes over 22 years of observations that can be used to estimate temperature trends. The trends in OSIRIS temperatures over 2005–2021 are compared to those from two other satellite limb instruments: SABER and MLS. We find that the upper stratosphere cooled by ~0.5 to 1 K/decade during this period. Results from the three instruments are generally in agreement. By merging the OSIRIS observations with those from channel 3 of the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), we find that the stratosphere cooled at a rate of approximately -0.6 K/decade between 1979 and 2021 near 45 km, in agreement with earlier results based on SSU and MLS. The similarity between OSIRIS temperature trends and those from other records improves confidence in observed upper stratospheric temperature changes over the last several decades.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".