Differential efficacy of medical therapies for ulcerative colitis according to disease extent: patient-level analysis from multiple randomized controlled trials
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Disease extent in Ulcerative Colitis (UC) has prognostic implications for disease course. It is unclear whether the efficacy of medical therapies for moderate to severely active UC vary according to disease extent at enrollment. Methods: We analyzed patient level data from 11 Phase 2 and 3 clinical trials of advanced therapies in patients with moderate-to-severe UC to assess modifications of advanced therapy effects by disease extent. Primary outcome was clinical response and secondary outcomes were clinical remission, endoscopic response/remission and endoscopic improvement, and Mayo clinic subscore for both induction and maintenance studies. Binary and continuous outcomes were analyzed using the modified Poisson regression model and the mixed-effects model, respectively, adjusting for age, sex, disease duration, concomitant steroid use and prior anti-TNF use. Effect modifications with binary outcomes were quantified by ratios of risk ratio for left-sided to that for extensive colitis while effect modifications with the Mayo subscores were quantified by differences of the differences between mean scores of the left-sided and extensive colitis. Results were presented with point estimates and 95% confidence intervals as well as p-values. Findings: Eleven clinical trials enrolling 5450 UC patients (infliximab = 2, adalimumab = 2, golimumab = 2, vedolizumab = 2, tofacitinib = 3) were included. In induction trials, there was evidence to suggest effect modification by disease extent for clinical response with tofacitinib (the ratio of RRs 0.67, 95% CI [0.45, 0.99], p = 0.049) and clinical remission with infliximab (ratio of RRs 0.33, 95% CI [0.13, 0.85], p = 0.020) favoring patients with extensive colitis. There was no evidence to suggest effect modification for endoscopic improvement and clinical outcomes. There was evidence to suggest effect modification by disease extent for clinical remission with tofacitinib (ratio of RRs 0.44, 95% CI [0.22, 0.89], p = 0.020) favoring patients with extensive colitis. For symptom subscores from the Mayo Clinic score, tofacitinib was associated with a greater reduction in both stool frequency (difference of differences 0.37, 95% CI [0.08, 0.65], p = 0.012) and rectal bleeding scores (difference of differences 0.25, 95% CI [0.03, 0.47], p = 0.026) in patients with extensive colitis compared to left sided. Interpretation: These findings underscore the possibility of differential efficacy of medical therapies according to disease distribution. These results warrant further exploration in forthcoming trials to better inform treatment strategies and consideration of disease distribution as a baseline stratification factor in clinical trials. Funding: This study did not receive any financial support.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.056 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".