Estimated Doses to the Heart, Lungs and Oesophagus and Risks From Typical UK Radiotherapy for Early Breast Cancer During 2015–2023
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: Breast cancer radiotherapy can increase the risks of heart disease, lung cancer and oesophageal cancer. At present, the best dosimetric predictors of these risks are mean doses to the whole heart, lungs and oesophagus, respectively. We aimed to estimate typical doses to these organs and resulting risks from UK breast cancer radiotherapy. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of planned or delivered mean doses to the whole heart, lungs or oesophagus from UK breast cancer radiotherapy in studies published during 2015-2023. Average mean doses were summarised for combinations of laterality and clinical targets. Heart disease and lung cancer mortality risks were then estimated using established models. RESULTS: For whole heart, thirteen studies reported 2893 doses. Average mean doses were higher in left than in right-sided radiotherapy and increased with extent of clinical targets. For left-sided radiotherapy, average mean heart doses were: 2.0 Gy (range 1.2-8.0 Gy) breast/chest wall, 2.7 Gy (range 0.6-5.6 Gy) breast/chest wall with either axilla or supraclavicular nodes and 2.9 Gy (range 1.3-4.7 Gy) breast/chest wall with nodes including internal mammary. For right-sided radiotherapy, average mean heart doses were: 1.0 Gy (range 0.3-1.0 Gy) breast/chest wall and 1.2 Gy (range 1.0-1.4 Gy) breast/chest wall with either axilla or supraclavicular nodes. There were no whole heart dose estimates from right internal mammary radiotherapy. For whole lung, six studies reported 2230 doses. Average mean lung doses increased with extent of targets irradiated: 2.6 Gy (range 1.4-3.0 Gy) breast/chest wall, 3.0 Gy (range 0.9-5.1 Gy) breast/chest wall with either axilla or supraclavicular nodes and 7.1 Gy (range 6.7-10.0 Gy) breast/chest wall with nodes including internal mammary. For whole oesophagus, two studies reported 76 doses. Average mean oesophagus doses increased with extent of targets irradiated: 1.4 Gy (range 1.0-2.0 Gy) breast/chest wall with either axilla or supraclavicular nodes and 5.8 Gy (range 1.9-10.0 Gy) breast/chest wall with nodes including internal mammary. CONCLUSIONS: The typical doses to these organs may be combined with dose-response relationships to estimate radiation risks. Estimated 30-year absolute lung cancer mortality risks from modern UK breast cancer radiotherapy for patients irradiated when aged 50 years were 2-6% for long-term continuing smokers, and <1% for non-smokers. Estimated 30-year mortality risks for heart disease were <1%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.016 | 0.037 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.021 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".