Sea ice transport and replenishment across and within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, 2016–2022
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) serves as both a source and a sink for sea ice from the Arctic Ocean, while also exporting sea ice into Baffin Bay. We use observations from Sentinel-1, RADARSAT-2, the RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM), and CryoSat-2, together with the Canadian Ice Service ice charts, to quantify sea ice transport and replenishment across and within the CAA from 2016 to 2022. We also provide the first estimates of the ice area and volume flux within the CAA from the Queen Elizabeth Islands to Parry Channel, which spans the central region of the Northwest Passage shipping route. Results indicate that the CAA primarily exports ice to the Arctic Ocean and Baffin Bay, with an average annual (October to September) ice area flux of 137 ± 72 × 103 km2 and a volume flux of 58 ± 68 km3. The CAA contributes a larger area but smaller volume of ice downstream to the North Atlantic than what is delivered via Nares Strait. The average annual ice area flux from the Queen Elizabeth Islands to Parry Channel was 27 ± 10 × 103 km2 and the volume flux was 34 ± 12 km3, with a majority occurring through Byam Martin Channel, which is directly above the central region of Northwest Passage. Over our study period, annual multi-year ice (MYI) replenishment within the CAA was resilient, with an average of 14 ± 38 × 103 km2 imported from the Arctic Ocean and an average of 56 ± 36 × 103 km2 of first-year ice (FYI) retained following the melt season. The considerable ice flux to Parry Channel, together with sustained MYI replenishment, emphasizes the continued risk that sea ice poses to practical utilization of key shipping routes in the CAA, including the Northwest Passage.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".