Incident Diabetes in Women With Patterns of Gestational Diabetes Occurrences Across 2 Pregnancies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: Gestational diabetes is a type 2 diabetes risk indicator, and recurrence further augments risk. In women with a single occurrence across 2 pregnancies, it is unclear whether first- vs second-pregnancy gestational diabetes differ in terms of risk. Objective: To compare the hazards of incident diabetes among those with gestational diabetes in the first, in the second, and in both pregnancies with women without gestational diabetes in either. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a retrospective cohort study with cohort inception from April 1, 1990, to December 31, 2012. Follow-up was April 1, 1990, to April 1, 2019. Participants were mothers with 2 singleton deliveries between April 1, 1990, and December 31, 2012, without diabetes before or between pregnancies, who were listed in public health care insurance administrative databases and birth, stillbirth, and death registries in Quebec, Canada. Data were analyzed from July to December 2023. Exposure: Gestational diabetes occurrence(s) across 2 pregnancies. Main outcomes and measures: Incident diabetes from the second delivery until a third pregnancy, death, or the end of the follow-up period, whichever occurred first. Results: The 431 980 women with 2 singleton deliveries studied had a mean (SD) age of 30.1 (4.5) years at second delivery, with a mean (SD) of 2.8 (1.5) years elapsed between deliveries; 373 415 (86.4%) were of European background, and 78 770 (18.2%) were at the highest quintile of material deprivation. Overall, 10 920 women (2.5%) had gestational diabetes in their first pregnancy, 16 145 (3.7%) in their second, and 8255 (1.9%) in both (12 205 incident diabetes events; median [IQR] follow-up 11.5 [5.3-19.4] years). First pregnancy-only gestational diabetes increased hazards 4.35-fold (95% CI, 4.06-4.67), second pregnancy-only increased hazards 7.68-fold (95% CI, 7.31-8.07), and gestational diabetes in both pregnancies increased hazards 15.8-fold (95% CI, 15.0-16.6). Compared with first pregnancy-only gestational diabetes, second pregnancy-only gestational diabetes increased hazards by 76% (95% CI, 1.63-1.91), while gestational diabetes in both pregnancies increased it 3.63-fold (95% CI, 3.36-3.93). Conclusions and relevance: In this retrospective cohort study of nearly half a million women with 2 singleton pregnancies, both the number and ordinal pregnancy of any gestational diabetes occurrence increased diabetes risk. These considerations offer greater nuance than an ever or never gestational diabetes dichotomy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".