Plasma versus Tissue Tumor Mutational Burden as Biomarkers of Durvalumab plus Tremelimumab Response in Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer in the CO.26 Trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: Tissue-derived tumor mutation burden (TMB) of ≥10 mutations/Mb is a histology-agnostic biomarker for the immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) pembrolizumab. However, the dataset in which this was validated lacked colorectal cancers (CRC), and there is limited evidence for immunotherapy benefits in CRC using this threshold. PATIENTS AND METHODS: CO.26 was a randomized phase II study of 180 patients, comparing durvalumab and tremelimumab (D + T, n = 119 patients) versus best supportive care (BSC; n = 61 patients). ctDNA sequencing was available for 168 patients (n = 118 D + T; n = 50), of whom 165 had evaluable plasma TMB (pTMB). Tissue sequencing was available for 108 patients. Optimal thresholds for stratifying patients based on OS were determined using a minimal P value approach. This report includes the final OS analysis. RESULTS: Tissue TMB ≥10 mutations/Mb was not predictive of benefit from D + T compared with BSC in microsatellite stable (MSS) metastatic CRC [HR, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.28-1.80); P = 0.47]. No tissue TMB threshold could identify a high TMB group that benefited from ICI. By contrast, plasma TMB (pTMB) ≥28 mutations/Mb was predictive of benefit from D + T [HR, 0.34 (95% CI, 0.13-0.85); P = 0.022], as was clonal pTMB ≥10.6 mutations/Mb [HR, 0.10 (95% CI, 0.014-0.79); P = 0.029] and subclonal pTMB ≥25.9/Mb [HR, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.061-0.69); P = 0.010]. Higher pTMB was associated with length of time on cytotoxic agents (P = 0.021) and prior anti-EGFR exposure (P = 2.44 × 10-06). CONCLUSIONS: pTMB derived from either clonal or subclonal mutations may identify a group likely to benefit from immunotherapy, although validation is required. Tissue TMB provided no predictive utility for immunotherapy in this trial.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".