Quantitative modelling of type Ia supernovae spectral time series: constraining the explosion physics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Multiple explosion mechanisms have been proposed to explain type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). Empirical modelling tools have also been developed that allow for fast, customized modelling of individual SNe and direct comparisons between observations and explosion model predictions. Such tools have provided useful insights, but the subjective nature with which empirical modelling is performed makes it difficult to obtain robust constraints on the explosion physics or expand studies to large populations of objects. Machine learning accelerated tools have therefore begun to gain traction. In this paper, we present riddler, a framework for automated fitting of SNe Ia spectral sequences up to shortly after maximum light. We train a series of neural networks on realistic ejecta profiles predicted by the W7 and N100 explosion models to emulate full radiative transfer simulations and apply nested sampling to determine the best-fitting model parameters for multiple spectra of a given SN simultaneously. We show that riddler is able to accurately recover the parameters of input spectra and use it to fit observations of two well-studied SNe Ia. We also investigate the impact of different weighting schemes when performing quantitative spectral fitting and show that best-fitting models and parameters are highly dependent on the assumed weighting schemes and priors. As spectroscopic samples of SNe Ia continue to grow, automated spectral fitting tools such as riddler will become increasingly important to maximise the physical constraints that can be gained in a quantitative and consistent manner.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".