Bibliographic record
Abstract
Multiple linear regression generalizes straight line regression to allow multiple explanatory (or predictor) variables, in this chapter under the normal errors assumption. The focus may be on accurate prediction. Or it may, alternatively or additionally, be on the regression coefficients themselves. Simplistic interpretations of coefficients can be grossly misleading. Later chapters elaborate on the ideas and methods developed in this chapter, applying them in new contexts. The attaching of causal interpretations to model coefficients must be justified both by reference to subject area knowledge and by careful checks to ensure that they are not artefacts of the correlation structure. There is attention to regression diagnostics, to assessment, and comparison of models. Variable selection strategies can readily over-fit. Hence the importance of training/test approaches and cross-validation. The potential is demonstrated for errors in x to seriously bias regression coefficients. Strong multicollinearity leads to large variance inflation factors.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.025 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.086 | 0.070 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".