Estimating major merger rates and spin parameters ab initio via the clustering of critical events
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT We build a model to predict from first principles the properties of major mergers. We predict these from the coalescence of peaks and saddle points in the vicinity of a given larger peak, as one increases the smoothing scale in the initial linear density field as a proxy for cosmic time. To refine our results, we also ensure, using a suite of ∼400 power-law Gaussian random fields smoothed at ∼30 different scales, that the relevant peaks and saddles are topologically connected: they should belong to a persistent pair before coalescence. Our model allows us to (a) compute the probability distribution function of the satellite-merger separation in Lagrangian space: they peak at three times the smoothing scale; (b) predict the distribution of the number of mergers as a function of peak rarity: haloes typically undergo two major mergers (>1:10) per decade of mass growth; (c) recover that the typical spin brought by mergers: it is of the order of a few tens of per cent.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".