Revisiting tornado watch #211 - a spatial analysis of the May 31, 1985 tornadoes using present-day data for the state of Pennsylvania
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
On the evening of 31 May 1985, a devastating and deadly tornado outbreak impacted Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and Ontario, Canada. A total of 41 tornadoes occurred resulting in 88 fatalities: the deadliest tornado outbreak of the 1980s. Pennsylvania experienced the greatest number of tornadoes with 21 affecting the Commonwealth, causing 65 fatalities. Despite its severity, Pennsylvania’s deadliest tornado outbreak has not been spatially analyzed in academic literature. With the outbreak occurring nearly 40 years ago, one must consider the potential impacts today in comparison to the 1985 time-period. Has the natural and built landscape changed to the extent that the population would be further impacted both directly and indirectly? To assist in answering this question, this study performs a Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis of Pennsylvania’s historical and present-day land cover, census, and building data in locations impacted by the 1985 tornadoes. Data between the two time periods is compared and analyzed to quantify changes since 1985 to estimate if the impacts would be lesser or greater in relation to the expanding bull’s eye effect. This includes estimating the number of fatalities that would occur in the present-day.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it