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Record W4396890770 · doi:10.1093/psquar/qqae046

Can Credibility Overcome Elite Polarization?

2024· article· en· W4396890770 on OpenAlex
Daniel J. Hopkins, Gall Sigler

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenuePolitical Science Quarterly · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicSocial Media and Politics
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsEliteCredibilityPolitical sciencePolarization (electrochemistry)Political economyEconomic systemEconomicsLawChemistryPolitics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Political scientists Alexander Gazmararian and Dustin Tingley's incisive new book Uncertain Futures: How to Unlock the Climate Impasse contends that credibility is key to unlocking the deadlock over climate policy. They claim that fossil fuel communities have often been skeptical of any transition away from fossil fuels with good reason. In similar situations, policymakers have often failed to follow through on policies meant to mitigate economic dislocation. Drawing on a wealth of quantitative and qualitative evidence from energy-producing communities, including surveys of residents and officials alike, Gazmararian and Tingley find that different policy features that bolster credibility can build support for a transition to clean energy sources. The book provides a much-needed view of the energy transition from the ground-up. Yet the book pays less attention to a principal-agent problem at the heart of the clean energy transition: many of the elected representatives of the communities most affected by the transition don’t acknowledge any need for a transition. What's more, in a highly polarized environment, the impact of policy feedbacks is likely to be muted. Drawing on the experiences of the ACA and Canada's carbon tax, we suggest that even when the policy features that the authors propose are present, support for clean-energy policies may not rise dramatically.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesScience and technology studies
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.158
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.003
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.023
GPT teacher head0.356
Teacher spread0.333 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it