Bibliographic record
Abstract
This fictional story shows how, in a world of perfectly rational agents, policymaking can become complicated, because of the role in which policy can be anticipated, where any expected change in policy will immediately be taken into account by the rational agents. In effect, it extends the Lucas critique to its logical conclusion. In the land of La Noitar live the Noitars, people who think alike. Their ruler strives to maximise the people's well-being by choosing the optimal economic policy through meticulously filling out a big chart. All goes well, until one day when the chosen policies start to lose their effectiveness. This happens because people react to the policies based on their expectations of what will happen. To cope with this, the ruler must incorporate the people's expectations in the calculations by expanding the chart. However, as the chart expands, people also re-adjust their expectations. As time goes by, policies become increasingly short-lived and ultimately work only when they are unexpected, surprising the people. In the end, policymaking relies completely on randomisation, and the ruler retires.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.009 | 0.014 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.025 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".