Shortcut learning in medical AI hinders generalization: method for estimating AI model generalization without external data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Healthcare datasets are becoming larger and more complex, necessitating the development of accurate and generalizable AI models for medical applications. Unstructured datasets, including medical imaging, electrocardiograms, and natural language data, are gaining attention with advancements in deep convolutional neural networks and large language models. However, estimating the generalizability of these models to new healthcare settings without extensive validation on external data remains challenging. In experiments across 13 datasets including X-rays, CTs, ECGs, clinical discharge summaries, and lung auscultation data, our results demonstrate that model performance is frequently overestimated by up to 20% on average due to shortcut learning of hidden data acquisition biases (DAB). Shortcut learning refers to a phenomenon in which an AI model learns to solve a task based on spurious correlations present in the data as opposed to features directly related to the task itself. We propose an open source, bias-corrected external accuracy estimate, P E s t , that better estimates external accuracy to within 4% on average by measuring and calibrating for DAB-induced shortcut learning.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.066 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".