Keeping Deep Learning Models in Check: A History-Based Approach to Mitigate Overfitting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In software engineering, deep learning models are increasingly deployed for critical tasks such as bug detection and code review. However, overfitting remains a challenge that affects the quality, reliability, and trustworthiness of software systems that utilize deep learning models. Overfitting can be (1) prevented (e.g., using dropout or early stopping) or (2) detected in a trained model (e.g., using correlation-based approaches). Both overfitting detection and prevention approaches that are currently used have constraints (e.g., requiring modification of the model structure, and high computing resources). In this paper, we propose a simple, yet powerful approach that can both detect and prevent overfitting based on the training history (i.e., validation losses). Our approach first trains a time series classifier on training histories of overfit models. This classifier is then used to detect if a trained model is overfit. In addition, our trained classifier can be used to prevent overfitting by identifying the optimal point to stop a model’s training. We evaluate our approach on its ability to identify and prevent overfitting in real-world samples. We compare our approach against correlation-based detection approaches and the most commonly used prevention approach (i.e., early stopping). Our approach achieves an F1 score of 0.91 which is at least 5% higher than the current best-performing non-intrusive overfitting detection approach. Furthermore, our approach can stop training to avoid overfitting at least 32% of the times earlier than early stopping and has the same or a better rate of returning the best model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.023 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".