Iterative smoothing for change-point regression function estimation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding wildfire spread in Canada is critical to promoting forest health and protecting human life and infrastructure. Quantifying fire spread from noisy images, where change-point boundaries separate regions of fire, is critical to accurately estimating fire spread rates. The challenge lies in denoising the fire images and accurately identifying highly non-linear fire lines without smoothing over boundaries. In this paper, we develop an iterative smoothing algorithm for change-point data that utilizes oversmoothed estimates of the underlying data generating process to inform re-smoothing. We demonstrate its effectiveness on simulated one- and two-dimensional change-point data, and robustness to response outliers. Then, we apply the methodology to fire spread images from laboratory micro-fire experiments and show that the regions fuel, burning and burnt-out are smoothed while boundaries are preserved.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it